人类活动对鄱阳湖流域水文干旱演变特征的影响
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长江水利委员会长江科学院

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国家自然科学基金委-中华人民共和国水利部-中国长江三峡集团有限公司长江水科学研究联合基金(U2240224),江西省技术创新引导类计划项目(2023KSG01005)。


Influence of human activities on hydrologic drought characteristics in the Lake Poyang Basin
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    摘要:

    为定量评估人类活动对鄱阳湖流域水文干旱特征的影响,基于1959-2022年流域内气象水文站点的实测数据,分析降水、气温、蒸发及径流序列的年际变化趋势。采用双累积曲线法,绘制鄱阳湖五大流域分区的累积年降水量~径流深关系曲线,根据曲线斜率变化情况,结合突变点检验,确定人类活动影响的基准期和变化期。采用两参数月水量平衡模型,依据各阶段月降水、蒸发和径流实测数据,分阶段率定模型参数,并利用纳什效率系数、相关系数及水量平衡误差检验模拟效果。通过对基准期、变化期模拟月径流深的还现、还原计算及其相对差值分析,量化气候变化、人类活动对径流的影响。以单月标准化径流指数(SRI)为干旱指标,运用游程理论识别变化期的干旱事件,对比分析参数还原前后的年平均累积干旱烈度、单次干旱最大烈度及干旱次数等特征。结果显示,总体上人类活动减少了流域的径流深,且对枯水期影响更为显著。空间上,以抚河和饶河流域受影响最为明显,年平均径流深较基准期分别减少8.5%、9.2%,枯水期径流深减少12.0%、12.3%。变化期鄱阳湖流域水文干旱频次和烈度较基准期整体增加,年均干旱次数、年均干旱烈度、单次干旱最大烈度分别增加约21.3%、55.4%和24.3%。该研究可为鄱阳湖流域干旱趋势的长期预测提供参考。

    Abstract:

    In order to quantitatively evaluate the impact of human activities on the changes of hydrologic drought characteristics in Poyang Lake Basin, This article analyzes the inter-annual variation trend of precipitation, temperature, evaporation and runoff from 1959 to 2022 according to the data of meteorological and hydrologic stations in the basin. The relationship curve between cumulative annual precipitation and runoff in the five watershed divisions of Poyang Lake is drawn by using the double cumulative curve method, based on which and combined with the mutation point test,the reference period and change period affected by human activities are divided. According to the measured data of precipitation, evaporation and runoff for each period, the parameters of the two - parameter monthly water balance model are calibrated, and the simulation results are tested using Nash efficiency coefficient, correlation coefficient, and water balance error. By simulating the reduction and reconstruction of monthly runoff during the reference and change periods, and the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff is obtained; Using the SRI as the hydrological drought index, drought events during the change period were identified through run length theory. The characteristics of annual average cumulative drought intensity, the maximum severity of a single drought, and drought frequency before and after parameter reduction were compared. The results show that human activities have generally reduced the runoff depth in the basin, with more significant impacts on the dry season. Spatially, the impacts on the Fu River and Rao River basins are the most obvious, with the annual average runoff depth and the runoff depth during the dry season decreasing by 8.5%, 9.2%, 12.0%, and 12.3% respectively. The frequency and severity of hydrological droughts in the Poyang Lake Basin during the change period have generally increased. The average annual number of droughts, the average annual drought severity, and the maximum severity of a single drought have increased by approximately 21.3%, 55.4%, and 24.3% respectively compared with the reference period. The research can provide a reference for the long-term prediction of the drought trend in the Poyang Lake Basin.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-15
  • 最后修改日期:2025-04-24
  • 录用日期:2025-05-26
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-03
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