中国主要流域氮磷浓度与通量的时空分异及其对径流变化的响应
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1.河海大学农业科学与工程学院;2.中国科学院南京土壤研究所土壤与农业可持续发展国家重点实验室

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Spatio-temporal Distribution Characteristics of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Concentrations and Fluxes and Hydrological Driving Mechanisms in Major Chinese River Basins
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1.College of Agricultural Science and Engineering,Hohai University;2.State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences

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    摘要:

    流域污染物通量控制是保障水环境质量的关键,尤其在极端降水事件频发、水文波动加剧的背景下,污染物负荷与径流的相对变化直接影响河流的最终浓度水平。解析浓度与通量对径流变化的响应特征,对于流域水质风险评估具有重要意义。本研究基于2021—2024年中国主要流域136个典型站点的逐日监测数据,结合同步水文资料,分析了河流总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)浓度与通量的时空分异特征,并采用幂函数回归模型构建浓度-流量、通量-流量关系,解析其对径流变化的响应规律。结果表明:中国河流氮磷的浓度与通量在空间分布上存在显著的不一致性,北方流域呈现“高浓度-低通量”特征,TN浓度常维持在4.0~8.0 mg/L,TP浓度平均值为0.093 mg/L,但受径流量限制,输送通量较低;南方流域则表现为“低浓度-高通量”格局,其TN和TP平均通量(4.29 kg/km2/d、0.18 kg/km2/d)均显著高于北方(3.62 kg/km2/d、0.12 kg/km2/d)。季节波动对氮、磷的驱动机制存在本质差异:TN以溶解态为主,受稀释作用主导,呈枯水期高浓度、丰水期高通量的特征,径流量是通量变化的决定性因素;TP以颗粒态为主,受冲刷作用主导,丰水期强降雨引发土壤侵蚀与底泥再悬浮,致使浓度与通量同步达到峰值。浓度-流量分析显示,TN浓度与径流呈显著负相关(北方b = -0.20,南方b = -0.16),受稀释作用主导;TP浓度与流量的关系较弱,尤其北方流域未达显著水平。通量-流量分析显示,TN通量对径流的敏感性南北方无显著差异;而TP通量对径流的敏感性北方(b"" = 0.41)显著高于南方(b"" = 0.28),表明北方流域在极端降雨下磷输出风险更高。综上,建议实施分区管控策略,北方流域侧重枯水期浓度控制与雨季颗粒态磷输出防控,南方流域侧重丰水期入河(海)总量控制与枯水期浓度反弹风险预警。

    Abstract:

    Total load control of riverine pollutant transport is critical for safeguarding water environmental quality, particularly under the background of frequent extreme precipitation and intensified hydrological variability, where the relative changes between pollutant loads and discharge directly determine the ultimate concentration levels in rivers. Elucidating the response characteristics of concentration and flux to discharge variations is of great significance for watershed water quality risk assessment. Based on daily monitoring data from 136 representative stations across China""s major river basins during 2021–2024, combined with synchronous hydrological records, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and fluxes, and employed power function regression models to establish concentration-discharge (C-Q) and flux-discharge (F-Q) relationships to decipher their response mechanisms to discharge variations. The results revealed significant spatial inconsistency between concentrations and fluxes of nitrogen and phosphorus in Chinese rivers. Northern basins exhibited a "high concentration-low flux" pattern, with TN concentrations typically sustained between 4.0 and 8.0 mg/L and an average TP concentration of 0.093 mg/L, yet transport fluxes remained low due to limited runoff; conversely, southern basins displayed a "low concentration-high flux" pattern, with average TN and TP fluxes (4.29 kg/km2/d and 0.18 kg/km2/d) significantly exceeding those in the north (3.62 kg/km2/d and 0.12 kg/km2/d). Seasonal fluctuations revealed fundamentally distinct driving mechanisms for nitrogen and phosphorus: TN, predominantly in dissolved form, was governed by dilution effects, exhibiting "high concentration during dry season and high flux during wet season" characteristics, with runoff being the decisive factor for flux variation; TP, primarily in particulate form, was dominated by scouring effects, where intense rainfall during the wet season triggered soil erosion and sediment resuspension, causing concentration and flux to peak synchronously. C-Q analysis indicated that TN concentration was significantly negatively correlated with discharge (northern b = -0.20, southern b = -0.16), dominated by dilution effects, while the relationship between TP concentration and discharge was weak, particularly failing to reach significance in northern basins. F-Q analysis showed no significant regional difference in TN flux sensitivity to discharge, whereas TP flux sensitivity was significantly higher in the north (b"" = 0.41) than in the south (b"" = 0.28), indicating elevated phosphorus export risk in northern basins during extreme rainfall events. In conclusion, region-specific management strategies are recommended: northern basins should prioritize dry-season concentration control and rainy-season particulate phosphorus export prevention, while southern basins should focus on wet-season total load control and early warning systems for concentration rebound risks during low-flow periods.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-01-16
  • 最后修改日期:2026-06-15
  • 录用日期:2026-06-15
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-11
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