澜沧江梯级水库温室气体表观传输系数的空间异质性及其排放估算不确定性
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1.云南师范大学;2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;3.湖北工业大学

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Spatial Heterogeneity of Apparent Transfer Velocities of Greenhouse Gases and Its Impacts on Uncertainties of Emission Estimates in the Lancang River Cascade Reservoirs
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Yunnan Normal University

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    摘要:

    拦河筑坝显著改变了河流的水动力特性,使水库成为全球温室气体的重要排放源,但目前对其排放估算仍存在极大不确定性。本研究于2025年8月对澜沧江干流11座典型梯级水库开展夏季野外调查,系统探究了甲烷(CH4)和二氧化碳(CO2)扩散通量及其气体表观传输系数(k)的空间异质性,并逐一解析了气体种类、海拔梯度及库区内相对位置等潜在驱动因子。结果表明:11座梯级水库中两种气体的排放模式存在显著差异。CH4扩散通量为1.23 ± 2.53 mmol m?² d?¹,坝前区及库中区表现为排放热点;CO2通量范围为?287.25 ~ 143.46 mmol m?² d?¹,库中区及入库区域总体表现为碳源(中位数:23.10 mmol m?² d?¹),而坝前区域因光合作用增强表现为碳汇(中位数:?11.69 mmol m?² d?¹)。实测k值总体呈现k(CH4)显著大于k(CO2)的趋势(均值分别为8.02和5.46 cm h?¹;p < 0.05)。在入库区高流速掺气河段,CH4与CO2溶解度数量级的差异是掺气过程对CH4产生物理增强效应的主因;此外,海拔梯度通过改变气压与气体溶解度,对气体交换系数亦具有潜在的物理驱动效应。k(CH4)表现出较强的空间异质性(8.02 ± 5.81 cm h?¹),由k值空间变异引入的CH4通量估算不确定性(变异系数72.4%)与溶存CH4浓度空间异质性带来的不确定性(71.4% ~ 73.1%)规模相当。仅考虑风速的经验k模型系统性低估了澜沧江水库CH4扩散通量约一个数量级,而纳入流速参数的模型可显著提升k值的预测精度。本研究证实,气体交换系数的空间异质性是水库碳排放估算不确定性的核心来源之一,未来评估需综合考量水动力梯度与气体溶解度差异的协同影响。

    Abstract:

    Dam construction significantly alters the hydrodynamic characteristics of rivers, rendering reservoirs important sources of global greenhouse gas emissions; however, current emission estimates remain highly uncertain. This study conducted a summer field survey in August 2025 at 11 typical cascade reservoirs along the mainstem of the Lancang River, systematically investigating the spatial heterogeneity of diffusive fluxes of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) and their gas transfer velocities (k), and individually dissecting potential driving factors including gas species, elevation gradients, and relative positions within the reservoirs. The results revealed that the two gases exhibited significantly distinct emission patterns across the 11 cascade reservoirs. The CH? diffusive flux averaged 1.23 ± 2.53 mmol m?² d?¹, with an emission hotspot identified in the middle reservoir reaches. CO? fluxes ranged from ?287.25 to 143.46 mmol m?² d?¹; the middle and downstream reservoir reaches generally acted as carbon sources (median: 23.10 mmol m?² d?¹), whereas the dam-proximal zone functioned as a carbon sink due to enhanced photosynthesis (median: ?11.69 mmol m?² d?¹). Measured k values showed a statistically significant trend of k(CH4) > k(CO2) (means of 8.02 and 5.46 cm h?¹, respectively; p < 0.05). In the high-flow, air-entrainment reaches near the reservoir tailwaters, the order-of-magnitude difference in solubility between CH? and CO2 was the primary reason why the air-entrainment process induced a physical enhancement effect on CH4. In addition, altitudinal gradients may exert potential physical controls on the gas transfer coefficient by altering atmospheric pressure and gas solubility. k(CH4) exhibited pronounced spatial heterogeneity (8.02 ± 5.81 cm h?¹); the uncertainty in CH4 flux estimation introduced by spatial variability in k (coefficient of variation: 72.4%) was comparable in magnitude to that arising from spatial heterogeneity in dissolved CH4 concentrations (71.4%-73.1%). Empirical k models relying solely on wind speed systematically underestimated CH4 diffusive fluxes from Lancang River reservoirs by approximately one order of magnitude, whereas models incorporating flow velocity markedly improved k prediction accuracy. This study confirms that spatial heterogeneity in gas transfer velocity constitutes one of the core sources of uncertainty in reservoir carbon emission estimates, and future assessments should integratively account for the synergistic effects of hydrodynamic gradients and gas solubility differences.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-06-15
  • 最后修改日期:2026-06-30
  • 录用日期:2026-07-22
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-18
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