Ecological Risk Assessment and Multi-scale Risk Management of Landslide Disasters Based on Time Series: A Case Study of Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China
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Hubei University of Technology, School of Civil Engineering, Architecture and Environment

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Youth Science Fund Program

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    Abstract:

    The Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA), being one of the country"s typical ecologically vulnerable areas and areas prone to frequent landslide disasters, the occurrence of landslide disasters severely endangers the health and stability of the reservoir area"s ecosystem. Therefore, the ecological risk assessment of landslide disasters in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area is crucial for the environmental management and ecological risk prevention in the reservoir area. Based on the three-dimensional model of “susceptibility-vulnerability-potential loss”, considering the impact of long - time series, the random forest model was adopted to evaluate the susceptibility of landslide disasters. Landscape pattern indices were used to represent ecological vulnerability, and the potential ecological losses caused by landslide disasters were quantitatively calculated through ecosystem services. The ecological risk assessment of landslide disasters in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area from 2000 to 2020 was carried out. Risk prevention zones were divided, and corresponding risk management measures were proposed. The results indicate that: ①Areas with relatively high and high ecological risks of landslide disasters are scattered in distribution, yet on the whole, they show a zonal distribution along both banks of the Yangtze River. Areas with moderate and relatively low risks spread from both banks of the Yangtze River and its tributaries to the periphery. Low - risk areas account for about 60% of the total area of the study region, mainly concentrated on the periphery of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. ②The landslide susceptibility and ecological vulnerability in the study area showed an increasing trend from 2000 to 2010, while the potential ecological loss was significantly reduced, resulting in a decreasing trend of landslide ecological risk; the opposite is true from 2010 to 2020, when the landslide ecological risk in the study area showed an increasing trend, and the ecological risk areas of the final high and higher-grade landslide hazard showed an expanding trend. ③The study area was divided into 16 risk prevention zones according to the dominant factors of the risk structure, the trend of risk change, and the potential ecological losses. By reasonably adjusting the intensity and focus of risk management, a multi - scale risk - segmented management strategy for the overall study area, different sections, and key districts and counties is formulated. This aims to achieve comprehensive disaster prevention, precise management measures, and efficient resource allocation.

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History
  • Received:October 25,2024
  • Revised:January 25,2025
  • Adopted:February 11,2025
  • Online: February 27,2025
  • Published:
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