The sediment seed bank"s ability to efficiently connect previous vegetation"s genetic memory with future vegetation"s development trend is crucial for maintaining community species diversity, restoring ecosystems, and promoting the natural regeneration of aquatic vegetation in shallow lakes. The submerged plant survey and seed bank germination experiments were used in this study to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of the submerged plant seed bank of Caohai Lake in Guizhou. A comprehensive restoration potential evaluation model was built based on the submerged vegetation, sediment seed bank, sediment, and water quality characteristics to evaluate the restoration potential of various lake areas. Results showed that: (1) the seed bank"s density ranged from 976 to 23,537 seeds/m2, which was comparatively well preserved; it contained nine species from five families, seven genus. The dominant families were the Potamogetonaceae, Hydrocharitaceae, and Najadaceae. The dominant species was Charophyte, which had the highest seed bank density (mean 6057 seeds/m2), which was noticeably higher than others. (2) The sediment seed bank in the Caohai Lake demonstrated obvious spatial heterogeneity, with higher density in the southern and northeast inshore areas and lower density in the mid-lake area. The seed bank was primarily distributed in the surface sediment (0–15 cm), indicating an obvious "surface aggregation" phenomenon. The discrete coefficient analysis revealed that Charophyte, Vallisneria natans, and Potamogenton perfoliatus L had aggregated distribution patterns, while the remaining species had uniform distribution patterns. Furthermore, Sorensen"s similarity coefficient analysis suggested that the succession of submerged communities in Caohai Lake may be quite stable. (3) The southwest and northeast of the Caohai near-shore lake area have high recovery potential for submerged and are designated as "priority recovery areas" The recovery strategy entails keeping water levels low throughout the critical period of submerged seed germination and utilizing the seed bank to achieve natural submerged recovery. The near-shore areas in the northwest and north have a low potential for restoration due to the deeper water level and low seed bank density and are considered“transition zones". The restoration strategy is gradually restoring submerged Caohai Lake by manually adding seeds or planting seedlings under low-water operations. The outlet, southeast side, and center of the lake are considered the“key restoration areas” due to their lowest restoration potential. Because of the serious nutrient loading and the high density of the seed bank, the restoration strategy is to control endogenous pollution and improve water quality, create suitable habitats, and use the seed bank to realize the near-natural restoration of submerged plants. This study can provide a theoretical basis and support for recovering aquatic plant ecosystems in shallow lakes undergoing degradation.