This study quantifies the spatiotemporal dynamics of blue and green water resources in the Min-Tuo River Basin and disentangles their differential sensitivities to climate and land-use changes, thereby proposing context-specific management strategies and adaptive pathways for sustainable water governance.Utilizing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and the Future Land-Use Simulation (FLUS) model, combined with climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6),we analyzed historical changes (1981–2021) and projected future dynamics of blue and green water up to 2100. Key findings include:(1)From 1981 to 2021, the Min-Tuo River Basin was dominated by blue water, accounting for 63.2% of the total water resources. Climate change served as the core driving factor for variations in blue and green water, with contribution rates of 79.12% and 63.29%, respectively.(2)Between 1990 and 2020, cultivated land and grassland decreased by 4.0% and 2.1% , respectively, while urban land expanded by 138% , significantly reducing agricultural and grassland areas and exacerbating spatial imbalances in water resources.By 2040, urban land is projected to further expand by 135% , further compressing the spatial extent of grassland and cultivated land. This expansion will concentrate in the Chengdu Plain?in the eastern part of the basin, exacerbating water scarcity risks in densely populated areas.(3)Future climate trends indicate a precipitation increase of 1.43-1.80 mm/a,temperature rise of 0.025-0.042℃/a,Green water will significantly increase by 0.35-1.02 mm/a, while blue water decreases until 2050 before rebounding. Among the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), the fossil fuel-dominated pathway (SSP5-8.5) exhibits the most pronounced changes in blue and green water, whereas curbing urban expansion and prioritizing sustainable development (SSP1-2.6) could effectively alleviate water resource pressure.(4)blue water concentrates in the southwestern basin, while green water hotspots shift southeastward. The Chengdu Plain faces heightened risks of water scarcity and extreme events due to population density and elevated temperatures.This study provides a scientific basis for adaptive water management strategies in the Min-Tuo River Basin under climate and land-use pressures.