摘要
以2016—2023年太湖8条主要入湖河流监测断面的6项污染指标数据为基础,深入剖析了这些河流污染的时空分异特征,并采用正定矩阵因子分析模型(PMF)对污染来源进行了定量解析。结果表明,入湖河流各项污染指标浓度整体呈逐年下降趋势。在时间分布上,氨氮、总氮浓度在冬季(1—2月、12月)相对较高,高锰酸盐指数、化学需氧量、总磷浓度在夏季(6—9月)较高,五日生化需氧量浓度一年有两个峰值,分别出现在3—5月和8—9月。从空间分布来看,太湖北部湖区的望虞河、小溪港以及西南山区的大港河,各项污染指标浓度相对较低;而西部湖区的武进港、太滆运河、太滆南运河、大浦港、乌溪港污染物浓度较高,对太湖的氮、磷贡献较大。进一步研究发现,太湖主要入湖河流的污染源主要有生活源、水产养殖源、畜禽养殖和农田种植源、工业源4类,贡献率分别为32.5%、19.8%、40.3%、7.4%。其中,武进港、太滆运河、太滆南运河、大浦港、乌溪港5条高污染河流的污染源贡献占比和时间变化趋势基本一致,汛期主要受农业面源影响,冬季主要受生活源影响。近年来,水产养殖源对太滆运河、太滆南运河汛期污染物贡献突出,畜禽养殖和农田种植源对大浦港、乌溪港水质影响较大,生活源则是影响武进港水质的重要因素。因此,削减畜禽、水产养殖及农田退水的污染物入河量,并持续推进环境基础设施建设,实现污水全收集、全处理,对改善太湖水质至关重要。
Abstract
Based on the data of six pollution indicators from monitoring sections of eight major rivers flowing into Lake Taihu during 2016-2023, this study deeply analyzed the temporal and spatial differentiation characteristics of pollution in these rivers. The positive definite matrix factor analysis model (PMF) was used to quantitatively analyze the pollution sources. The results showed that the concentrations of various pollution indicators in the inflowing rivers generally presented a downward trend year by year. Regarding temporal distribution, the concentrations of ammonia nitrogen and total nitrogen were relatively high in winter (January-February and December), while the concentrations of permanganate index, chemical oxygen demand and total phosphorus were higher in summer (June-September). The biochemical oxygen demand after 5 days concentration had two peaks in a year, occurring in March-May and August-September, respectively. Regarding spatial distribution, the Wangyu River, Xiaoxi Harbor in the northern Lake Taihu area, and the Dagang River in the southwestern mountainous area had relatively low concentrations of various pollution indicators. In contrast, the Wujin Port, Taige Canal, Taige South Canal, Dapu Port, and Wuxi Port in the western lake area had higher pollutant concentrations and made significant contributions to the nitrogen and phosphorus in Lake Taihu. Further research found that the main pollution sources of the rivers entering Lake Taihu mainly included four types: domestic sources, aquaculture sources, livestock and poultry breeding and farmland planting sources, and industrial sources, with contribution rates of 32.5%, 19.8%, 40.3%, and 7.4% respectively. Among them, the contribution ratios of pollution sources and the temporal change trends of five rivers with high pollution levels, such as Wujin Port and Taige Canal, were the same. During the flood season, they were mainly affected by agricultural non-point sources, while in winter, they were mainly influenced by domestic sources. In recent years, aquaculture sources had significantly contributed to pollutant loads in the Taige Canal and Taige South Canal during flood seasons, while livestock breeding and farmland cultivation sources exerted more pronounced impacts on water quality in Dapu Port and Wuxi Port. Domestic wastewater discharges emerged as a critical factor affecting water quality in Wujin Port. Therefore, it is crucial to reduce the amount of pollutants entering the river from livestock, poultry, aquaculture, and farmland drainage and continuously promote the construction of environmental infrastructure to achieve the full collection and treatment of sewage, so as to improve the water quality of Lake Taihu.
太湖流域地处长江三角洲南部,流域面积达3.69×104 km2,分属江苏、浙江、安徽和上海等地,是我国大中城市高度聚集、经济发展极为活跃的区域之一。流域内河道纵横交错,总长度约为12×104 km,在广阔的平原地区构成了复杂的水网。丰富的水资源为区域社会经济的快速发展提供了有力支撑,但与此同时,不断增加的污染负荷给太湖水质改善带来了巨大挑战[1-2]。入湖河流作为太湖污染的重要来源,一直是众多学者研究的焦点。王倩等[3]对西太湖入湖河流水系(南溪水系和洮滆水系)的污染分异特征进行了研究;季海萍等[4]对1986—2017年近30年的环湖出、入湖水量变化进行了定性和定量分析,发现环湖年入湖水量呈明显的增加趋势,在1990s后期出现突变性增长,年出湖水量增加趋势显著,在21世纪初后期突变增加;易娟等[5]分析了2007—2014年太湖湖区及环太湖22条主要入湖河流的水质监测资料,指出河道污染物输入是太湖主要的污染来源,直接影响着太湖水质的变化,因此控制入湖河流污染物是治理太湖污染的关键环节。
然而,目前针对太湖入湖河流污染源的研究存在一定局限性。多数研究聚焦于某一条河流,对污染源贡献程度的定量研究较少,而且研究时间多集中在2007年蓝藻水华事件后的10多年,近期研究相对不足。经过多年的治理,太湖流域的污染状况已有明显改善[6-7]。基于此,本研究选取8条主要入湖河流,利用2016—2023年国控断面地表水监测数据,详细分析6项污染指标的时空差异,运用正定矩阵因子分析模型(PMF)对污染源进行探究和定量分析,同时针对污染较重的西部湖区入湖河流,深入研究其污染源贡献情况及时间变化趋势,旨在为太湖流域的水质管理和保护提供科学依据。
1 数据与方法
1.1 研究区概况
太湖(30°55′~31°32′N,119°52′~120°36′E)是我国第三大淡水湖,为典型的平原浅水湖,平均水深为1.9 m,湖面面积约为2400 km2。太湖流域属于亚热带季风气候区,气候温暖,雨量充沛,年平均气温在16.0~18.0℃之间,年降水量为1100~1150 mm,汛期主要集中在6—9月。地势西高东低,太湖周边地貌特征西部以山地丘陵为主,北部以平原和水网为主[8]。与太湖相通的河道多达200余条,但大多流量较小且河道较短。本研究选取的8条入湖河流均位于江苏省境内,其入湖水量约占太湖上游来水总量的50%,分别是望虞河、小溪港、武进港、太滆运河、太滆南运河、大浦港、乌溪港、大港河,对应的国家地表水环境质量监测断面为312国道桥、小溪港桥、姚巷桥、百渎港桥、殷村港桥、大浦港桥、乌溪港桥和大港桥(图1)。
1.2 正定矩阵因子分析
PMF是一种多元因子分析工具,也是基于多变量因子分析方法的定量源解析模型,在受体模型中占据重要地位。它解决了非最优标度问题,在各类污染物源解析中应用广泛[9]。该模型通过定义一个目标函数Q,当Q值最小时,模型将受体浓度矩阵X分解成两个因子矩阵,即因子贡献矩阵G、源成分谱矩阵F,以及一个残差矩阵E,可以表示为:
(1)
(2)
(3)
