| 摘要: |
| 单退圩是鄱阳湖防洪体系的重要组成部分,科学运用直接影响着湖滨地区的防洪安全与蓄滞洪区的运行管理。2020年鄱阳湖单退圩首次全面启用,本文结合实际情况系统模拟了圩堤分洪过程并分析分洪效果,运用模糊优选方法从消落水深、启用频率和年均损失等方面筛选启用方案,进一步讨论单退圩体制机制及运行管理存在的问题。结果表明,2020年鄱阳湖单退圩累积分洪量为24.7亿m3,24小时消落水深最大达0.236m,分洪时段集中在7月8日—17日,启用分洪48小时圩堤总分洪量占总分洪容量的40.3%,圩堤分洪效率有待进一步提高。单退圩启用与洪水过程存在一定关系,根据保护面积设置圩堤启用方案,湖口水位21.50m(保护面积万亩以下)和21.68m(保护面积万亩以上)为优选方案对应的水位,相应地48小时最大消落水深、启用频率和年均损失分别为0.621m、9.80%和2.516亿元。单退圩相关法律法规不完善,管理体制机制不健全直接影响圩堤分洪能力,地方发展导致分洪容量减少约2.0亿m3,且大部分圩堤进洪设施不能满足分洪效率要求。为了提升鄱阳湖单退圩的分洪能力,有效发挥其分洪缓冲作用,建议根据实际情况统一调整圩堤系统的分洪布局,同时建立协同运行调度决策机制,以应对未来鄱阳湖可能遭受的超标准洪水。 |
| 关键词: 单退圩 分洪过程 消落水深 方案优选 鄱阳湖 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:(52169001)、江西省水利科技项目(202325ZDKT14、202224ZDKT20、202124ZDKT02) 、江西省鄱阳湖水资源与环境重点实验室开放(2021SKSH01) |
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| Effects of flood diversion and scheme selection of Lake Poyang semi-restoration polder in 2020 |
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Wen Tianfu1, Lei Sheng1, Niu Jiao1, Jia Lei1, Yuan Xiaofeng2, Wang Zhichao1, Zhang Lei1, Xiong Bin3, Zhang Yang4
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1.Jiangxi Academy of Water Science and Engineering;2.Jiangxi Jianhong Consulting Company Limited of Hydraulic Engineering;3.Nanchang Universtiy;4.Jiangxi Hydrological Monitoring Center
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| Abstract: |
| Semi-restoration polder of Lake Poyang is an important part of the flood control system in the lake area, and its the scientific application directly affects the flood control safety and the management of the flood detention areas in the lake. The semi-restoration polder of Lake Poyang was fully put into use for the first time in 2020. This paper simulates the flood diversion process of the polder and analyzes its flood diversion effect based on the actual situation of 2020, and uses the fuzzy optimization method to select the optimal operation scheme from the three aspects of water depth, use frequency and average annual loss, and further discusses the problems existing in the institutional mechanism as well as operation management of the semi-restoration polder. The results show that the flood distribution period is concentrated from July 8 to 17 in 2020, with 24.7 billion m3 of the cumulative flood diversion of Lake Poyang, 0.236m of the maximum 24-hour reduction of water depth, meanwhile and the flood distribution efficiency of the polder needs to be further improved since the total flood diversion in the 48 hours accounts for 40.3% of the total capacity. Actually, there is some relationship between the optimal operation scheme and the lake flood process. According to the protection area, the operational levels of optimal scheme are 21.50m (less than 10,000 mu of the protected area) and 21.68m (more than 10,000 mu of the protected area) of the Hukou Station, which the corresponding 48-hour maximum reduction of water depth, activation frequency and average annual loss are 0.621m, 9.80% and 251.6 million yuan, respectively. Capacity reduction of about 200 million m3 due to the local development as well as the imperfection of laws and regulations, management mechanism related to the semi-restoration polder, meanwhile most of the polder inlet facilities cannot meet the requirements of flood diversion efficiency. In order to improve the flood diversion capacity of the semi-restoration polder of Lake Poyang and the role of flood buffer for flood detention area, it is suggested to adjust the flood diversion layout of the polder according to the actual situation, and to establish a decision-making mechanism of collaborative operation to deal with the possible over-standard floods of Lake Poyang in the future. |
| Key words: Semi-restoration polder Flood diversion process Depth reduction Scheme optimization Lake Poyang |
