| 摘要: |
| 为定量解析南四湖水源组成、厘清本地水与外调水的关系，精准保护湖泊水资源，本文建立了基于氢氧稳定同位素的贝叶斯混合模型，分析比较南水北调东线运行后调水期、非调水期不同水源对南四湖湖区的贡献比例及季节特征。结果表明：（1）流域降雨受到一定程度局地蒸发的影响，夏季受海洋蒸发水汽的影响；（2）南四湖地下水、大气降水、入湖河流和外调水等不同水源对湖区水体的贡献比例受南水北调东线工程运行影响较大，调水期分别为5.4%、8.7%、31.2%和54.7%，外调水贡献比例最高；非调水期分别为22.9%、53%、6.7%和17.4%，大气降水贡献比例最高，入湖河流贡献相对较少。（3）南水北调东线调水实施后，调水期的外调水量对湖区的贡献占绝对优势，表明调水对南四湖水量变化发挥了重要作用，调水活动逐渐取代自然因素成为流域水量变化的主要驱动因子。 |
| 关键词: 南四湖，水源组成，南水北调东线，稳定同位素，贝叶斯混合模型 |
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| Quantitative Analysis of Water Sources in Nansi Lake Based on Stable Isotope Bayesian Mixing Model |
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Ying Bai, Zongzhi Wang, Lang Tan, Lili Fan
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State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute
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| Abstract: |
| In order to quantify the composition of water sources in Nansi Lake, clarify the relationship between local water and diverted water, and protect lake water resources accurately after the operation of the Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, a Bayesian mixing model for hydrogen and oxygen stable isotopes is established. The contribution and seasonal characteristics of different water sources to Nansi Lake were compared and analyzed during the diversion and non-diversion period. The results showed that: (1) Precipitation is influenced by local water vapor, and slightly effected by oceanic water vapor during the summer. (2) Contribution of different water sources to Nansi Lake, including groundwater, precipitation, river runoff, and diverted water, are significantly influenced by the operation of the Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. During the diversion period, the contributions are 5.4%, 8.7%, 31.2%, and 54.7% respectively, with the highest contribution from diverted water. During the non-diversion period, however, the contributions are 22.9%, 53%, 6.7%, and 17.4% respectively, with the highest contribution from precipitation and relatively less from river runoff. (3) After the implementation of water diversion, the contribution of diverted water during the diversion period is absolutely dominant, which indicates that water diversion plays an important role in the water volume changes of Nansi Lake, and replace natural factors as the main driving force. |
| Key words: Nansi Lake, water source composition, South-to-North Water Diversion Project, stable isotopes, Bayesian mixing model |
