| 摘要: |
| 近年来，流域干旱逐年加剧，城市规模扩大和人口增加，使得水资源供需矛盾突出。因此，研究气象干旱与水文干旱之间的关系对水资源的影响以及评估不同城市对干旱的脆弱性至关重要。本文提出了复合干旱概念及判别标准；基于汉江中下游1973—2020年逐月降水、径流数据，利用标准化降水指数（SPI）和借助粒子群优化算法改进的标准化径流指数（ISRI）分析了汉江中下游气象干旱与水文干旱时空变化；结合耦合协调度模型探究了复合干旱之间的关系及时空分布特征。结果表明：（1）时间上，汉江中下游春季干旱主要由水文干旱主导；夏季整体无旱；秋季干旱主要由气象干旱主导；冬季主要由气象干旱和复合干旱主导。（2）时间上，1973—2020 年汉江中下游气象干旱与水文干旱整体耦合程度以较强（0.75＜C≤1）为主，协调程度以中协调（0.5＜D≤0.7）为主。空间上，2013年前汉江中下游各地区耦合协调度大小为：仙孝都市圈（XX）>荆门市>襄阳市>武汉市>天潜都市圈（TQ）；2013年后各地区耦合协调度大小为：武汉市>天潜都市圈（TQ）>襄阳市>荆门市>仙孝都市圈（XX）。（3）汉江中下游气象干旱与水文干旱耦合协调关系主要以高耦合中协调为主，且在研究期内耦合协调关系呈减弱状态，整体下降了7.8%。2013年以后汉江中下游流域天潜都市圈（TQ）、武汉市干旱防治最为紧迫。本文提出的基于耦合协调模型研究复合干旱的思路和方法可为流域的干旱防治与发展提供理论依据，从而实现城市可持续发展。 |
| 关键词: 复合性干旱 耦合协调 粒子群优化算法 汉江中下游流域 |
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| 基金项目:智慧长江与水电科学湖北省重点实验室开放研究基金项目(ZH21020001) |
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| Study on Composite Drought Based on Coupling Coordination Model—a Case Study of the Middle and Lower Reaches of Hanjiang River |
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Wang Qing1, Yu Ting2, Chen Yanfei1, Zhu Wenlong1, Ding Jiawei1, dong yu ru, sun yong xi
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1.College of Resources and Environment, Yangtze University;2.Hubei Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
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| Abstract: |
| In recent years, the drought in the basin has intensified year by year, the expansion of urban scale and the increase of population have made the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources prominent. Therefore, it is very important to study the impact of the relationship between meteorological drought and hydrological drought on water resources and to assess the vulnerability of different cities to drought. In this paper, the concept and criterion of compound drought are proposed. Based on the monthly precipitation and runoff data of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River from 1973 to 2020, the standardized precipitation index ( SPI ) and the standardized runoff index ( ISRI ) improved by particle swarm optimization algorithm were used to analyze the spatial and temporal changes of meteorological drought and hydrological drought in the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River. Combined with the coupling coordination degree model, the relationship between composite droughts and their spatial and temporal distribution characteristics were explored. The results show that : ( 1 ) On the seasonal scale, the spring drought in the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River is mainly dominated by hydrological drought ; there is no drought in summer ; autumn drought is mainly dominated by meteorological drought ; winter is mainly dominated by meteorological drought and compound drought. ( 2 ) In terms of time, the overall coupling degree of meteorological drought and hydrological drought in the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River from 1973 to 2020 is mainly strong ( 0.75 < C ≤ 1 ), and the coordination degree is mainly moderate ( 0.5 < D ≤ 0.7 ). In terms of space, the coupling coordination degree of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River before 2013 is : Xianxiao metropolitan area ( XX ) > Jingmen city > Xiangyang city > Wuhan city > Tianqian metropolitan area ( TQ ) ; after 2013, the coupling coordination degree of each region is : Wuhan > Tianqian metropolitan area ( TQ ) > Xiangyang > Jingmen > Xianxiao metropolitan area ( XX ). ( 3 ) The coupling and coordination relationship between meteorological drought and hydrological drought in the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River is mainly based on high coupling and medium coordination, and the coupling and coordination relationship is weakened during the study period, with an overall decrease of 7.8 %. After 2013, the prevention and control of drought in Tianqian metropolitan area ( TQ ) and Wuhan in the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River is the most urgent. The idea and method of studying compound drought based on coupling coordination model proposed in this paper can provide a theoretical basis for drought prevention and development in the basin, so as to achieve sustainable urban development. |
| Key words: compound drought coupling coordination particle swarm optimization algorithm lower-middle reaches of hanjiang river |
