| 摘要: |
| 三峡库区作为国家典型生态脆弱区和滑坡灾害频发区之一，滑坡灾害的发生严重威胁着库区生态系统的健康和稳定。因此，开展三峡库区滑坡灾害生态风险评价对于库区环境治理和生态风险防范至关重要。基于“易发性-脆弱性-潜在损失”三维模型，考虑长时间序列影响，采用随机森林模型评估滑坡灾害易发性，借助景观格局指数表征生态脆弱性，利用生态系统服务定量核算滑坡灾害潜在生态损失，开展2000-2020年三峡库区滑坡灾害生态风险评价，并划分风险防范分区，提出相应风险管理措施。结果表明：①滑坡灾害生态风险较高和高值区域分布较为散乱，但整体呈现沿长江两岸的带状分布特征，中等风险和较低风险表现出沿长江及其支流两岸向外围扩散，低风险区域占研究区总面积的60%左右，主要集中于三峡库区的外围。②2000-2010年研究区滑坡易发性和生态脆弱性呈增加趋势，而潜在生态损失显著降低，使得滑坡生态风险呈下降趋势；2010-2020年情况相反，研究区滑坡生态风险呈现上升趋势，且最终高和较高等级滑坡灾害生态风险地区呈扩张趋势。③按照风险结构主导因子、风险变化趋势和潜在生态损失将研究区分为16种风险防范分区，通过合理调整风险管理的力度和侧重点，制定研究区整体、分段和重点区县多尺度风险分段管理策略，以期实现灾害综合防范、管理精准施策和资源高效配置。 |
| 关键词: 滑坡灾害生态风险 滑坡易发性 生态脆弱性 潜在生态损失 三峡库区 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:青年科学基金项目 |
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| Ecological Risk Assessment and Multi-scale Risk Management of Landslide Disasters Based on Time Series: A Case Study of Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China |
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yuxianyu, zhangmenghan
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Hubei University of Technology, School of Civil Engineering, Architecture and Environment
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| Abstract: |
| The Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA), being one of the country"s typical ecologically vulnerable areas and areas prone to frequent landslide disasters, the occurrence of landslide disasters severely endangers the health and stability of the reservoir area"s ecosystem. Therefore, the ecological risk assessment of landslide disasters in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area is crucial for the environmental management and ecological risk prevention in the reservoir area. Based on the three-dimensional model of “susceptibility-vulnerability-potential loss”, considering the impact of long - time series, the random forest model was adopted to evaluate the susceptibility of landslide disasters. Landscape pattern indices were used to represent ecological vulnerability, and the potential ecological losses caused by landslide disasters were quantitatively calculated through ecosystem services. The ecological risk assessment of landslide disasters in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area from 2000 to 2020 was carried out. Risk prevention zones were divided, and corresponding risk management measures were proposed. The results indicate that: ①Areas with relatively high and high ecological risks of landslide disasters are scattered in distribution, yet on the whole, they show a zonal distribution along both banks of the Yangtze River. Areas with moderate and relatively low risks spread from both banks of the Yangtze River and its tributaries to the periphery. Low - risk areas account for about 60% of the total area of the study region, mainly concentrated on the periphery of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. ②The landslide susceptibility and ecological vulnerability in the study area showed an increasing trend from 2000 to 2010, while the potential ecological loss was significantly reduced, resulting in a decreasing trend of landslide ecological risk; the opposite is true from 2010 to 2020, when the landslide ecological risk in the study area showed an increasing trend, and the ecological risk areas of the final high and higher-grade landslide hazard showed an expanding trend. ③The study area was divided into 16 risk prevention zones according to the dominant factors of the risk structure, the trend of risk change, and the potential ecological losses. By reasonably adjusting the intensity and focus of risk management, a multi - scale risk - segmented management strategy for the overall study area, different sections, and key districts and counties is formulated. This aims to achieve comprehensive disaster prevention, precise management measures, and efficient resource allocation. |
| Key words: ecological risk of landslide disasters landslide susceptibility ecological vulnerability ecological potential damage TGRA |
