| 摘要: |
| 长江流域有丰富和长期的水旱灾害史料,最早的水灾和旱灾记载有2000余年的历史,经过系统整理和分析的历史水旱灾害资料有1000余年的旱涝型年表和500余年的旱涝分布图集.在以上资料基础上,对长江流域历史水旱灾害的地域分布特性和时间变化规律进行了初步分析:500余年历史水旱灾害的地域分布显示,流域水旱灾害总体特征是水灾重于旱灾,各级水旱灾害频率的地域分布极不均匀,存在着显著的灾害多发和少发地带,它们与自然地理环境、水系特征、气候条件和社会经济条件等因素有关;1000余年旱涝型年表分析表明,长江流域洪涝和干旱频次在时间上的非均匀分布并非完全随机,表现出多种时间尺度的年际变化特征,其中主要表现为约100a上下的大干湿气候期变化及40a左右的小旱涝期振动. |
| 关键词: 水旱灾害 分布特点 变化规律 长江流域 |
| DOI：10.18307/2003.sup25 |
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| 基金项目: |
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| Analysis on Historical Flood and Drought Disasters in the Changjiang River Basin |
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Huang Zhongshu, Li Chunlong
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Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, P. R. China
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| Abstract: |
| There are abundant and long historical data on floods and droughts in Changjiang River basin. As early as 2000 years ago there existed records on flood and drought disasters. After verification and analysis, the 1000-year table of flood and drought years and the 500-year chart of flood and drought distributions have been obtained. On basis of all this historical data, preliminary analysis has been carried out on the spatial distribution characteristics and the temporal variation properties of floods and droughts in the Changjiang River basin. The spatial distribution of floods and droughts in 500 years shows that generally speaking, there were more floods than droughts and that the spatial distributions of floods and droughts were very much uneven. It can be clearly seen that there are areas with significant more disasters or less, which are closely related to natural topographic conditions, water system properties, climate and social and economical situations. Analysis of the 1000-year table of flood and drought years indicates that the temporal distribution of historical floods and droughts, although uneven, has not been completely stochastic. There are annual variation properties on different time scales. The most obvious are the big 100-year-odd dry and wet climate cycle and the 40-year-odd small flood or drought period. |
| Key words: Flood and drought disaster distribution characteristics variation property and Changjiang River basin |
