| 引用本文: | 孙思瑞,谢平,赵江艳,桑燕芳,宁迈进,周慧.洞庭湖三口洪峰流量和水位变异特性分析.湖泊科学,2018,30(3):812-824. DOI:10.18307/2018.0323 |
| SUN Sirui,XIE Ping,ZHAO Jiangyan,SANG Yanfang,NING Maijin,ZHOU Hui.Variability in the annual flood peak discharge and water level in three outlets of Lake Dongting. J. Lake Sci.2018,30(3):812-824. DOI:10.18307/2018.0323 |
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| 洞庭湖三口洪峰流量和水位变异特性分析 |
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孙思瑞1, 谢平1,2, 赵江艳1, 桑燕芳3, 宁迈进4, 周慧4
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1.武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 武汉 430072;2.国家领土主权与海洋权益协同创新中心, 武汉 430072;3.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环与地表过程重点实验室, 北京 100101;4.湖南省水文水资源勘测局, 长沙 410007
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| 摘要: |
| 近几十年来，受荆江裁弯、葛洲坝工程运用、三峡水库拦蓄调度、洞庭湖治理以及长江上游水土保持措施等因素的综合影响，洞庭湖三口（松滋口、太平口和藕池口）的水文情势发生了显著变化，给湖区防洪、水资源、水生态、水环境等造成一系列影响.为了深入认识三口洪水发生的复杂变化，本文采用水文变异诊断系统和Zivot-Andrews结构突变单位根检验方法，对三口各水文站点的年最大洪峰流量和年最高洪峰水位序列进行变异诊断，并对其变异特性和变异原因进行分析.结果表明，各站点洪峰流量序列的变异具有较好的一致性；受分流能力变化和上游来流变化的影响，三口各站点的洪峰流量多呈现方向向下的趋势变异；受到洪道冲刷、流量减小、顶托减弱、洪道上下游落差增大的影响，三口各站点洪峰水位在2004年均发生方向向下的跳跃变异. |
| 关键词: 水文变异 检测与归因 洪峰流量 洞庭湖 长江 |
| DOI：10.18307/2018.0323 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（91547205，51579181，91647110）和湖南省水利科技项目（湘水科计[2015]13-21）联合资助. |
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| Variability in the annual flood peak discharge and water level in three outlets of Lake Dongting |
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SUN Sirui1, XIE Ping1,2, ZHAO Jiangyan1, SANG Yanfang3, NING Maijin4, ZHOU Hui4
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1.Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, P. R. China;2.Collaborative Innovation Center for Territorial Sovereignty and Maritime Rights, Wuhan 430072, P. R. China;3.Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, P. R. China;4.Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of Hunan Province, Changsha 410007, P. R. China
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| Abstract: |
| During recent decades, hydrological regimes at the three outlets (i.e., Songzi, Taiping and Ouchi outlets) of Lake Dongting have been greatly changed, which is comprehensively caused by the cutoff works in the Jingjiang River channels, operation of the Gezhou Reservoir, flood storage and operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), and soil-water conservation practices in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The obviously hydrological variability in the basin would inevitably influence the flood disasters control, water resources management, and protection of water ecology and environment. For investigating the changes and variability in the hydrological process occurred in the basin, in this study we employed the hydrological variability detection system (composed of namely primary diagnosis, detailed diagnosis and comprehensive diagnosis) and the Zivot-Andrews unit root test method, mainly to identify the changes in the annual maximum peak flood series and annual highest flood level series measured at five stations at the three outlets of Lake Dongting, as well as attributing their physical causes. The diagnosis system includes many methods, by which shortages of a certain method can be overcome and different results of methods can be compared. The Zivot-Andrews unit root test can be used to determine the local trends in a hydrological series. Diagnosis results indicate that the annual maximum peak flood processes at the three outlets consistently show a similar downward trend, which is closely related to the changes in the water-sediment diversion ability and upstream flow changes. A downward jump point in 1968 was detected at some stations, and the three outlets cut-off construction can be the reasons. The annual maximum peak flood process at the Kangjiagang station has local trends, and the trend slope was greatly changed before and after the local trend year 1968. It can be caused by the influence of the three outlets cut-off construction. The annual highest flooding water level series presented a downward jump in 2004, mainly due to the erosion of flood channels, peak flow reduction, jacking function weakened and the increases in the upstream and downstream changes. |
| Key words: Hydrological variability detection and attribution flood peaks Lake Dongting Yangtze River |
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