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引用本文:程俭,刘昌华,刘凯,武建双,范晨雨,薛滨,马荣华,宋春桥.2004年以来青海湖快速扩张对人居设施与草地的潜在影响.湖泊科学,2021,33(3):922-934. DOI:10.18307/2021.0325
Cheng Jian,Liu Changhua,Liu Kai,Wu Jianshuang,Fan Chenyu,Xue Bin,Ma Ronghua,Song Chunqiao.Potential impact of the dramatical expansion of Lake Qinghai on the habitat facilities and grassland since 2004. J. Lake Sci.2021,33(3):922-934. DOI:10.18307/2021.0325
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2004年以来青海湖快速扩张对人居设施与草地的潜在影响
程俭1,2, 刘昌华1, 刘凯2, 武建双3, 范晨雨1,2, 薛滨2, 马荣华2, 宋春桥2
1.河南理工大学测绘与国土信息工程学院, 焦作 454000;2.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所流域地理学重点实验室, 南京 210008;3.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101
摘要:
作为我国最大的内陆咸水湖,青海湖是青藏高原东北部重要水汽源,在维持区域生态环境及半干旱生态系统功能方面发挥着重要作用.近年来,青海湖水位迅速上升,但是湖泊扩张对周边人居设施与草地的影响尚未得到广泛关注和报道.基于1995—2019年Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI遥感影像、Hydroweb多源测高同化水位数据、SRTM-1 DEM数据等,本研究以青海湖近年来增长速率情景开展湖泊快速扩张对周边人居设施(道路、居民点)与草地影响和潜在威胁的定量研究.结果表明:1995—2004年期间青海湖处于萎缩态势,2004年水位和面积出现最小值,之后,青海湖进入稳定扩张期.2004—2019年期间,青海湖水位累计上涨3.27 m,年均增长率约为0.22 m/a;相应地,青海湖水量增长了14.25 km3,年均增长率为0.95 km3/a.湖泊扩张模拟结果显示,若青海湖水量以当前速率增长,水位将在2070年前后达到3207 m (相对2019年约10 m的水位涨幅),届时将会淹没178个居民点、长度约为1286.91 km的道路以及2042.22 km2的植被,其中预测的高风险区域主要为切吉乡、泉吉乡和金滩乡.该研究有望为青海湖快速扩张对当地居民的影响和潜在威胁提供重要的科学参考,并在气候变化背景下为制定缓解气候变化风险的预案提供科学依据.
关键词:  青藏高原  气候变化  青海湖  水位  道路  居民点  草地
DOI:10.18307/2021.0325
分类号:
基金项目:第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0202)、国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFA0607101,2018YFD0900804,2018YFD1100101)、国家“引进项目”青年项目(Y7QR011001)、中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)(XDA23100102)和国家自然科学基金项目(41971403,41801321)联合资助.
Potential impact of the dramatical expansion of Lake Qinghai on the habitat facilities and grassland since 2004
Cheng Jian1,2, Liu Changhua1, Liu Kai2, Wu Jianshuang3, Fan Chenyu1,2, Xue Bin2, Ma Ronghua2, Song Chunqiao2
1.College of Surveying and Geotechnical Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, P. R. China;2.Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, P. R. China;3.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, P. R. China
Abstract:
As China's largest inland saline lake, Lake Qinghai is an important source of water vapor in the northeast of the Tibetan Plateau, and plays an important role in the regional ecological environment and sustaining the semi-arid ecosystem function. In recent years, the water level of Lake Qinghai has risen rapidly, but the impact of lake expansion on the habitat facilities and grassland has not received widespread attention and reports. Based on Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI images from 1995 to 2019, Hydroweb multi-source altimetry measurements, and SRTM-1 DEM data, etc., this study aims to analyze the influence and potential threat of the lake rapid expansion on the habitat facilities (roads, settlements) and grassland by referring to the growth rate of Lake Qinghai in recent years. The results show that during the period of 1995-2004, Lake Qinghai was in a state of shrinkage, and the water level and area in 2004 was at the minimum. After 2004, Lake Qinghai entered a period of stable expansion. From 2004 to 2019, the water level of Lake Qinghai has increased by 3.27 m, and the annual increase rate is about 0.22 m/a; accordingly, the water storage has increased by 14.25 km3, with an average annual growth rate of 0.95 km3/a. Lake expansion simulation results show that the water level of Lake Qinghai will reach about 3207 m around 2070 at the current rising rate of water storage(relative to the water level increase of about 10 meters in 2019), at that time, 178 settlements, about 1286.91 km of roads and 2042.22 km2 of vegetation will be submerged, among which the predicted high-risk areas are mainly located in Qieji Township, Quanji Township, and Jintan Township. The study is expected to provide important scientific support for anticipating the impact and potential threats of the rapid expansion of Lake Qinghai on local residents, and to provide a scientific basis for formulating plans to mitigate climate change risks in the context of climate change.
Key words:  Tibetan Plateau  climate change  Lake Qinghai  water level  road  settlement  grassland
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