| 引用本文: | 周宏,石永杰,刘俊,欧淑芳,施力铭.太湖流域高度城镇化地区畅流活水多目标调度决策研究.湖泊科学,2023,35(4):1279-1295. DOI:10.18307/2023.0421 |
| Zhou Hong,Shi Yongjie,Liu Jun,Ou Shufang,Shi Liming.Multi-criteria decision making of water transfer schemes in highly urbanized area of Lake Taihu Basin. J. Lake Sci.2023,35(4):1279-1295. DOI:10.18307/2023.0421 |
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| 太湖流域高度城镇化地区畅流活水多目标调度决策研究 |
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周宏1,2, 石永杰3, 刘俊1,2, 欧淑芳4, 施力铭1
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1.河海大学水文水资源学院, 南京 210098;2.河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室, 南京 210098;3.中国生态城市研究院, 天津 300467;4.南京新开源工程实业有限公司, 南京 210022
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| 摘要: |
| 随着城市化进程的加快,高污染负荷、弱水动力条件、强人工干预导致的平原河网地区河道水质恶化、生态衰退已成为制约城市高质量发展的瓶颈之一。结合太湖流域高度城镇化地区水文水动力特性,构建了水动力-水质耦合模型,模拟了不同情景下河网水动力与水质情况。统筹考虑水质改善、水动力提升、经济成本等多目标,建立了活水调度多目标决策体系,基于模糊层次分析法确定评价体系水质改善、水动力提升与经济成本指标层权重分别为0.390、0.345、0.265,为各指标层设计对应的要素层,并利用模糊综合评价法进行评价。结果表明,针对不同调度情景下水质改善、水动力提升及经济成本等多目标的决策,利用多目标调度决策方法可有效确定效果最佳的工程调度情形。太湖流域高度城镇化地区区域性控制工程对畅流活水效果的影响要远大于锡山区控制工程,运东大包围城市防洪工程调度模式对研究区活水效果的影响最大。比选出的最优活水方案实现的研究区活水效果为水质达标率82%,水质平均提升率31%,Ⅲ类水断面占比61%,平均流速0.10 m/s,较优流速占比39%,滞水率32%。相较于传统的单指标或多指标简单比较的决策方法,多目标调度决策方法更具有综合性、合理性,可为太湖流域等平原河网高度城镇化地区畅流活水及水环境综合治理提供技术支撑。 |
| 关键词: 多目标调度决策 畅流活水 FAHP-FCE 高度城镇化 太湖流域 |
| DOI：10.18307/2023.0421 |
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| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0407201)和中英联合科学创新基金项目(UUFRIP_100051)联合资助。 |
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| Multi-criteria decision making of water transfer schemes in highly urbanized area of Lake Taihu Basin |
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Zhou Hong1,2, Shi Yongjie3, Liu Jun1,2, Ou Shufang4, Shi Liming1
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1.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, P. R. China;2.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, P. R. China;3.China Eco-city Academy, Tianjin 300467, P. R. China;4.Nanjing Xinkaiyuan Engineering Co., Ltd, Nanjing 210022, P. R. China
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| Abstract: |
| With accelerated urbanization processes, water quality deterioration and ecological decline in plain river network areas caused by high pollution loads, weak hydrodynamic conditions, and strong artificial intervention, have become bottlenecks for urban development. Combining the hydrological and hydrodynamic characteristics of highly urbanized area of Lake Taihu Basin, a water quantity and quality coupling model was constructed. Considering multiple objectives, i.e., water quality improvements, hydrodynamic improvements, and economic costs, a multi-criteria decision making comprehensive evaluation system for water transfer, comprising target, index, and element layers, was established. Based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), the weights for water quality improvement, hydrodynamic improvement, and economic cost index layers in the comprehensive evaluation system were 0.390, 0.345, and 0.265, respectively, and the corresponding element layers were designed for each index layer, in which a total of 10 elements were included. The decision making in the comprehensive evaluation system, including different water transfer schemes, is then evaluated using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) method. The results showed that the FAHP-FCE could effectively determine the optimal water transfer scheme for multi-objective decisions on water quality improvement, hydrodynamic improvement, and economic cost under different scheduling scenarios. The regional controlled projects had much greater impacts than that of the projects controlled by Xishan District in the highly urbanized area of Lake Taihu Basin, and the dispatching mode of Urban Flood Control Enclosure had the greatest influence on the effect of water transfer in Xishan District among the regional controlled projects. Water quality compliance rate for the optimal water transfer scheme achieved in the study area was 82%, average rate of water quality improvement was 31%, and proportion of cross-sections meeting the Class Ⅲ water quality standard was 61%. Average flow velocity was 0.10 m/s, proportion of the optimal velocity was 39%, and proportion of stagnant sections was 32%. The multi-criteria decision making comprehensive evaluation method based on FAHP-FCE and used to determine the optimal water transfer scheme, was more comprehensive and reasonable than the traditional single- or multi-indicator simple comparison results, and can provide a reference for highly urbanized plain river network areas, especially for Lake Taihu Basin, for water transfer to improve the water environment. |
| Key words: Multi-criteria decision making water transfer FAHP-FCE highly urbanized area Lake Taihu Basin |
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