| 引用本文: | 李奥璞,范俊韬,钱锋,王瑜,王艺霖,时悦.长江流域外来鲟入侵风险评估、适生区预测及影响因素分析.湖泊科学,2023,35(5):1717-1728. DOI:10.18307/2023.0531 |
| Li Aopu,Fan Juntao,Qian Feng,Wang Yu,Wang Yilin,Shi Yue.Invasion risk assessment, suitability regions prediction and influencing factors analysis of exotic sturgeon and paddlefish in the Yangtze River Basin. J. Lake Sci.2023,35(5):1717-1728. DOI:10.18307/2023.0531 |
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| 长江流域外来鲟入侵风险评估、适生区预测及影响因素分析 |
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李奥璞1, 范俊韬1, 钱锋1,2, 王瑜1,2, 王艺霖1, 时悦1
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1.中国环境科学研究院环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室, 北京 100012;2.中国环境科学研究院水生态环境研究所, 北京 100012
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| 摘要: |
| 长江流域外来鲟的养殖规模庞大,养殖逃逸成为外来鲟进入长江流域的主要途径,影响本地鲟种群生存。根据世界鱼类数据库(FishBase),10种主要养殖的外来鲟中,西伯利亚鲟已被列为德国和奥地利的入侵物种,匙吻鲟已被列为白俄罗斯的入侵物种。为了评估长江流域外来鲟的入侵风险,量化流域内入侵风险最高的外来鲟的适生区,本文使用水生物种入侵性筛查工具(AS-ISK)评估10种主要养殖的外来鲟和5种相关鱼类(虹鳟、尼罗罗非鱼、斑点叉尾鮰、鲮和丁鱥)的入侵风险;使用最大熵算法,基于当前和未来时期(2021—2040年)气候模式下的生物气候变量以及海拔,对于入侵评分最高的外来鲟在流域内的适生区进行预测与分析。结果表明,匙吻鲟在外来鲟中入侵评分最高,表明其在长江流域入侵风险最高。适生区预测时,最热季降水量、年降水量、最热月份最高温度、最冷月份最低温度、昼夜温差的月平均值和降水季节性变异系数是影响匙吻鲟在长江流域分布的主要变量。当前时期,匙吻鲟在长江流域中下游地区具有较大范围的适生区,主要包含湖南、湖北、安徽和江西等省份的部分地区,其中Ⅲ级适生区(高适生区)面积约为2996.8 km2;在未来时期气候模式的4种情景中,Ⅲ级适生区面积将增加1.41~1.78倍,总适生区质心将向东北方向迁移137.97~163.20 km,亟需防止养殖逃逸的匙吻鲟在这些地区危害本地鲟的生存。 |
| 关键词: 养殖逃逸 生物入侵 风险评估 最大熵值算法 |
| DOI：10.18307/2023.0531 |
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| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202105,2021YFC3201005)资助。 |
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| Invasion risk assessment, suitability regions prediction and influencing factors analysis of exotic sturgeon and paddlefish in the Yangtze River Basin |
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Li Aopu1, Fan Juntao1, Qian Feng1,2, Wang Yu1,2, Wang Yilin1, Shi Yue1
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1.State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, P.R. China;2.Institute of Water Environment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, P.R. China
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| Abstract: |
| The Yangtze River Basin, covering about 1.8×106 km2, is the natural habitat of the Chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis), Chinese paddlefish (Psephurus gladius) and Yangtze sturgeon (Acipenser dabryanus). In recent years, the scale of exotic sturgeon and paddlefish aquaculture in the Yangtze River Basin has been enormous, and escape from aquaculture has become the main way for these exotic sturgeons to enter the Yangtze River Basin, affecting the survival of local sturgeon and paddlefish populations. According to FishBase, of the ten farmed exotic sturgeon and paddlefish species, Acipenser baerii was considered as an invasive species in Germany and Austria, while the paddlefish (Polyodon spathula) was considered as an aquatic invader in Belarus. The Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit (AS-ISK) was used to assess the invasion risk of exotic sturgeon and paddlefish, and five related fish species (Oncorhynchus mykiss, Ictalurus punctatus, Oreochromis niloticus, Cirrhinus molitorella and Tinca tinca). The suitability regions for exotic sturgeon and paddlefish with the highest risk of invasion were quantified using the maximum entropy algorithm, considering present and future climate variables and altitude. The results showed that paddlefish was classified as having the highest score among ten farmed exotic sturgeon and paddlefish species, indicating the highest invasiveness of the paddlefish in the Yangtze River basin. The results of the maximum entropy algorithm indicated that the distribution of paddlefish in the Yangtze River Basin was mainly influenced by the precipitation of the warmest quarter, the annual precipitation, the maximum temperature of the warmest month, the minimum temperature of the coldest month, the mean diurnal range (maximum monthly temperature minus minimum monthly temperature) and the seasonality of precipitation (coefficient of variation). In the current period, the paddlefish had a wide range of suitability regions in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, mainly including parts of Hunan, Hubei, Anhui and Jiangxi provinces. And its area of the third-tier region (high suitability region) was about 2996.8 km2. Under the 4 scenarios of the global climate model, the number would increase by 1.41 to 1.78 times in the future period, while the centroid of the total suitability region would shift to the northeast by 137.97 km to 163.20 km. This study shows that care should be taken to ensure that the escape of farmed paddlefish does not threaten the survival of native sturgeon in these regions. |
| Key words: Aquaculture escape biological invasion risk assessment maximum entropy algorithm |
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