| 引用本文: | 刘瀚,林俊强,秦鑫,黄晋,俞立雄,熊定松,普源.基于生物水文响应模型的刺激四大家鱼繁殖生态调度目标量化方法研究——以三峡水库为例.湖泊科学,2023,35(5):1741-1751. DOI:10.18307/2023.0533 |
| Liu Han,Lin Junqiang,Qin Xin,Huang Jin,Yu Lixiong,Xiong Dingsong,Pu Yuan.Methods on quantifying ecological operation target based on bio-hydrological response model for stimulating the reproduction of four major Chinese carps in the Three Gorges Reservoir. J. Lake Sci.2023,35(5):1741-1751. DOI:10.18307/2023.0533 |
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| 基于生物水文响应模型的刺激四大家鱼繁殖生态调度目标量化方法研究——以三峡水库为例 |
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刘瀚1, 林俊强1, 秦鑫2, 黄晋3, 俞立雄4, 熊定松2, 普源2
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1.中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100038;2.云南华能澜沧江水电有限公司, 昆明 650011;3.中国水电建设集团圣达水电有限公司, 乐山 614013;4.中国水产科学研究院长江水产研究所, 武汉 430223
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| 摘要: |
| 为了改善生态调度效果,提高生态调度实践成功率,采用医学领域适用性广、准确性高、直观性强的受试者工作特征曲线法(receiver operating characteristic, ROC),以三峡水库为例,提出了一套基于生物水文响应模型的刺激四大家鱼繁殖生态调度目标量化方法,包括涨水事件界定及生态水文指标选择、鱼类自然繁殖事件及有效繁殖响应界定、生物-水文响应模型构建与多指标判别优选等多个环节。运用三峡水库运行后2013—2019年(除2016年)6年47场次宜昌江段的涨水事件和24次四大家鱼有效繁殖响应的实际观测数据构建模型并量化三峡水库生态调度目标。结果表明:(1)依据初始流量Q0、洪峰流量Qpeak、流量总增长量Qsum和流量日增长率dQ这4个指标所建立的单指标生物-水文响应模型具有较好判别四大家鱼自然繁殖对水文条件是否响应的能力;(2)各评价指标Q0、Qpeak、Qsum、dQ的最佳阈值分别为14960 m3/s、19610 m3/s、4050 m3/s及1405 m3/(s·d);单指标模型性能排序为dQ＞Qpeak＞Qsum＞Q0;(3)依据dQ或Qpeak的指标组合方式建立的多指标生物-水文响应模型综合性能最佳。结果表明,ROC模型方法结果形式简单、预见性强,据此量化生态调度目标,可为其他流域、水库的鱼类繁殖响应判别和水库生态调度方案制定提供参考借鉴。 |
| 关键词: 生态调度 四大家鱼 繁殖响应 ROC法 三峡水库 |
| DOI：10.18307/2023.0533 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金长江水科学研究联合基金项目(U2240214)和华能澜沧江水电股份有限公司重点科研项目(HY2020/S2)联合资助。 |
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| Methods on quantifying ecological operation target based on bio-hydrological response model for stimulating the reproduction of four major Chinese carps in the Three Gorges Reservoir |
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Liu Han1, Lin Junqiang1, Qin Xin2, Huang Jin3, Yu Lixiong4, Xiong Dingsong2, Pu Yuan2
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1.China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, P.R. China;2.Yunnan Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Co., Ltd, Kunming 650011, P.R. China;3.China Hydropower Construction Group Shengda Hydropower Co., Ltd, Leshan 614013, P.R. China;4.Yangtze River Fisheries Research Institute, Chinses Academy of Fishery Sciences, Wuhan 430233, P.R. China
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| Abstract: |
| In order to improve the ecological operation effect and increase the success rate of ecological operation practice, a set of ecological operation target quantification methods based on the bio-hydrological response model for stimulating reproduction of four major Chinese carps is proposed. The method includes the definition of upwelling event, the selection of eco-hydrological indicators, the definition of natural fish reproduction event and effective reproduction response, the construction of bio-hydrological response model and multi-indicator discriminative preference. The actual observed data of 47 upwelling events and 24 effective reproduction responses of four fish in the Yichang River section for 6 years after the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir from 2013 to 2019 (except 2016), were used to construct the model and quantify the ecological planning goals of the reservoir. The results showed that (1) the single-indicator bio-hydrological response model based on the four indicators of initial flow (Q0), peak flood flow (Qpeak), total flow growth (Qsum) and daily flow growth rate (dQ) had the ability to discriminate whether the natural reproduction of the four major carp was responsive to hydrological conditions; (2) the optimal thresholds for the above evaluation indicators were 14960 m3/s, 19610 m3/s, 4050 m3/s and 1405 m3/(s·d), respectively; the performance of the single indicator model was ranked as dQ>Qpeak>Qsum>Q0; (3) the comprehensive performance of the multi-indicator bio-hydrological response model based on the combination of dQ or Qpeak was the best. The model results are simple and predictable, and can be used to quantify the ecological operating targets, which can provide a reference for discriminating fish reproduction response and formulating reservoir ecological planning in different watersheds and reservoirs. |
| Key words: Ecological operation four major Chinese carps reproductive response receiver operating characteristic Three Gorges Reservoir |
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