| 摘要: |
| 近几年来,国家气候中心己经建立了中国主要四大流域气候对水资源影响评估的模式框架.本文拟进一步证明其中之一的两参数分布式月水量平衡水文模式对长江之上汉江和赣江两子流域径流的模拟能力,结果表明该水文模式对目前气候条件下径流模拟效果较好,运行稳定,可用于实时业务运行.在此基础上,利用ECHAM4和HadCM2两GCM(General Circulation Model)未来气候情景模拟结果及目前实测气候情况,对汉江和赣江两子流域的径流对未来气候变化的敏感性进行评估.经检验,两GCM对未来气候,特别是降水情景模拟存在一定差异,因此,造成径流对气候变化的响应不同,这充分反映了全球模式模拟结果不确定性在气候变化影响研究中的重要性. |
| 关键词: 气候变化 影响 径流 水文模型 长江 汉江 赣江 |
| DOI：10.18307/2003.sup13 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:中国科技部"全球环境变化对策与支撑技术研究"项目资助,部分由中国气象局国家气象气候中心"我国短期气候预测系统加强研究"课题96-908-06-2-02、"科学主任启动资金"支持 |
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| Impact of Climate change on the Runoffs from Hanjiang River and Ganjiang River in the Yangtze River Basin |
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CHEN Deliang1,2, GAO Ge1
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1.National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, P. R. Chia;2.Regional Climate Group, Earth Sciences Centre, Gothenburg University Gothenburg, Sweden
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| Abstract: |
| During the last few years, a modeling framework on the assessment of climatic impact on water resources for four main basins in China has been established at National Climate Center (NCC) of China. This work aims at demonstrating the capability of one of the hydrological models in simulating observed river flow and in assessing the sensitivity of the runoff to climate changes in two sub-basins of the Yangtze River. The study area includes Hanjiang River and Ganjiang River sub-basins. A distributed water balance model was used to simulate monthly water balance under present day and future climate scenarios. First, a control simulation for the period 1961-2000 using the observed climatic input was performed. A method to grid the station data into a 30 km×30 km grid system is described and tested, which provides the input to the hydrological model. A comparison between the simulated and measured runoff demonstrates capability of the model. A baseline period from 1961-1990 is chosen to represent the current climate. The potential impacts of future climate change are simulated by perturbing the observed driving climate variables (rainfall and temperature) during the baseline period and re-running the model for another two 30-year periods (2021-2050 and 2051-2080) with climate change scenarios estimated by General Circulation Model (GCM). The scenarios were constructed from the output of ECHAM4 and HadCM2 experiments. The experiments assume a 1% per year increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations from 1990 to 2100. Monthly differences between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990, as well as between 2051-2080 and 1961-1990 were used to force the hydrological model. The results for the two sub-basins were analysed, focusing on the changed runoff. While temperature changes are essentially consistent between the two GCMs, precipitation change shows a relatively large difference, which causes different response of runoff. This underlines the importance of uncertainties associated with GCM. |
| Key words: Climate change impact runoff hydrological model Yangtze River |
