| 引用本文: | 陈喜,苏布达,姜彤,施雅风.气候变化对沅江流域径流影响研究.湖泊科学,2003,15(Z1):115-122. DOI:10.18307/2003.sup14 |
| CHEN Xi,SU Buda,JIANG Tong,SHI Yafeng.Impacts of Climate Change on the Streamflow in the Yuanjiang River Basin. J. Lake Sci.2003,15(Z1):115-122. DOI:10.18307/2003.sup14 |
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| 摘要: |
| 温室气体排放量增加造成气候变化,对全球资源环境产生重要影响.本文在水量平衡基础上,建立考虑气象要素和地形变化的月水文模型,利用实测径流资料对模型在时空尺度上进行验证.利用全球气候模型(GCMs)预测的未来气候变化情形,对处于湿润区的沅江流域径流过程进行预测.分析结果表明,该区域径流过程对降雨和气温变化十分敏感.根据英国Hadcm2模型对本世纪中叶气候变化预测结果,沅江流域未来年降雨量减少0.43%气温升高1.55℃,丰水期降雨增加,而枯水期将有较大幅度减少.年径流量相应减少6.8%,丰水期径流量增大11%,枯水期径流减少47%,不利于防洪和水资源开发利用. |
| 关键词: 气候变化 全球气候模型 月水文模型 径流 沅江流域 |
| DOI：10.18307/2003.sup14 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(长江中下游洪水孕灾环境变化、致灾机理与减灾对策,KZCX3-SW-331)和国家自然科学基金项目史时期长江中下游平原旱涝序列时空格局与风险评价,40271112)联合资助 |
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| Impacts of Climate Change on the Streamflow in the Yuanjiang River Basin |
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CHEN Xi1, SU Buda2,3, JIANG Tong2, SHI Yafeng2
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1.College of Water Resources and Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, P. R. China;2.Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, P. R. China;3.Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, P. R. China
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| Abstract: |
| Global warming induced by an increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would change global and regional climate and take a significant influence on natural resources and environment. On the basis of water balance equation in unsaturated zone and digital elevation model, a monthly hydrological model char-acterizing heterogeneity of soil moisture content is developed. The model is calibrated and validated using monthly streamflow in the Yuanjiang basin in different spatial and temporal scales. Future possible runoff changes in the Yuanjiang basin is then simulated on the basis of the future climate scenarios predicted by global climate model (GCM). Simulation results demonstrate that annual runoffin the Yuanjinag basin is very sensitive to temperature rises and rainfall changes. From prediction results in the middle of 21th century presented by Hadley Centre for Climate prediction and Research HCCPR, UK (HADCM2), we know that mean annual temperature would increase 1.55℃ and precipitation decrease 0.43% in the Yuanjiang basin, and monthly rainfall would increase in flood season but decrease dramatically in drought season. Simulated results indicate that annual runoff would decrease 6.8 percent, and runoff in flood season increase 11% and in drought season decrease 47%, which results are not beneficial for flood defense and water resources utilization in the region. |
| Key words: Climate change global climate models (GCMs) runoff monthly hydrological model |
